Will JB Pritzker side with Brandon Johnson to worsen Chicago’s debt crisis?

Chicago is home to the most severe debt problem in the country. Illinois state lawmakers are about to worsen it. And Gov. JB Pritzker’s response will be a defining moment for his governorship.

Chicago has the worst debt problem of any big city in the country. Consider:

• Chicago carries more pension debt than 43 U.S. states.

• Seven of the 10 worst-funded pensions in the nation are in Chicago.

• More than 40% of city spending goes toward debt and pensions. That’s the highest share of any big-city budget dedicated to fixed costs by far, according to S&P Global.

How did this happen? Simply, politicians promised expensive benefits without knowing their true cost or having a plan to pay for them.

And they’re about to do that again, unless Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker intervenes.

The suite of sweeteners

In the final days of legislative session last month, Illinois state lawmakers snuck through a suite of pension sweeteners that will dramatically increase Chicago’s pension debt.

Specifically, state Sen. Robert Martwick, D-Chicago, filed a gut-and-replace amendment in the last week of session that included sweeteners for Chicago police and fire pensions. The bill then flew through the Senate and the House in a matter of days.

Despite what appears to be token opposition from Chicago’s Chief Financial Officer Jill Jaworski, Martwick told the Chicago Tribune that Mayor Brandon Johnson “understood a promise was made” and is fully supportive of the bill.

How much will these sweeteners cost? No one knows, exactly. There has been no actuarial analysis. We do know they would add billions of dollars in liabilities for the city, with annual costs topping out around $750 million according to back-of-the-envelope calculations from the Civic Federation.

That means more insecure retirements for public sector workers and more crowding out of essential services. This bill could also plunge the city into “junk” status, with Chicago credit already on a negative watch from Fitch.

Pritzker’s choice

The bill’s next stop is Pritzker’s desk. And his office told the Tribune it’s still under review.

The governor has largely been able to keep the Johnson administration’s financial mismanagement at a distance. But that changes if he signs this bill. The governor would then bear significant blame for Chicago’s perennial budget crises. And reward the behavior that created them in the first place.

On the other hand, with a veto, he’d be protecting Chicago’s public sector workers, taxpayers, and those reliant on government services.

The governor should veto.

See you at the movies

Chicago has a lot to learn from New York City’s brush with near-bankruptcy in 1975.

That’s when the Daily News ran the infamous headline, FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD.

So I’m excited to be co-hosting a screening of the documentary film Drop Dead City at the Chicago History Museum on July 1.

This documentary won the Ken Burns Prize for Film from the Library of Congress. It’s an entertaining watch. And I’ll be leading a discussion afterwards with Better Government Association President David Greising and Civic Federation President Joe Ferguson.

Grab a ticket here.

All proceeds benefit the Chicago History Museum.

See you on the river

I’ll be joining the Mincing Rascals for a live podcast on the Sainte Genevieve Riverboat in Ottawa, Illinois, on July 11. Grab a ticket here. Note: The nearby Matthiessen State Park is underrated. As is the bar inside the Starved Rock Lodge.